Rolling for Initiative is a weekly column by Scott Thorne, PhD, owner of Castle Perilous Games & Books in Carbondale, Illinois and instructor in marketing at Southeast Missouri State University. This week, Thorne looks back at his predictions for 2024 to see how he scored.
Given that this is the last Rolling for Initiative column of 2024, I thought I would take a look back at my predictions for the past year (see “Predictions for 2024”), and see how close to (or how off) the mark I was. So, without further ado, here we go:
- D&D at 50 Licensing. Going to have to call this one a miss or maybe a missed opportunity. Outside of the hobby gaming industry, I saw very little mass market licensed merchandise. We still had the Dungeons & Dragons candy and Hero’s Potion of Power from Boston America (and if you do not stock some of the licensed candies and drinks from them, I suggest you look at their catalog; we do well with the D&D snacks as well as Dragonball Z Senzu Beans and Legend of Zelda sour candy), but the only mass merchandise licensed products I saw, aside from t-shirts and hoodies, were socks and pajama pants. Given the amount of awareness Dungeons and Dragons generated in mass consciousness over the past couple of years, I expected more companies to take advantage of the potential sales generated by the 50th anniversary.
- D&D One. Got this one right, although the name got changed to D&D 2024 and, as I predicted, a limited edition of the Player’s Handbook released at GenCon (and is still selling at $200), with the wider release coming in September. The release of D&D 2024 does not appear to have hurt sales of the D&D 5E books, at least not here, as we must restock the line regularly. On the one hand, I would like to have seen the 2024 D&D Monster Manual arrive in time for a Christmas release; however, based on sales of the previous two books and the pre-orders we have booked for it, I foresee healthy sales of it when it arrives this February (see “2024 Monster Manual Completes D&D Core Trio”), and likely a boxed set of the three books releasing next fall for Christmas, but that should really appear in Predictions for 2025.
- Magic: The Gathering and Pokemon TCG Will Remain in the Top Three. This one was low hanging fruit. Looking back at the TCG Player sales rankings for 2024 shows Magic the Gathering and Pokemon releases consistently occupying over half of the spots in the Top 10 lists for 2024 (See “TCGPlayer Top 25 Sealed TCG Products Index”), with Star Wars Unlimited, One Piece, Disney Lorcana and Yu Gi Oh popping up at various rankings over the year, almost always, with the exception of Disney Lorcana Chapter One boosters, tied to a new release. The Sorcery: Contested Realms Arthurian Legends and Flesh and Blood Heavy Hitters sets did make one-time appearances in the Top 10 but dropped out after one month, with no other sets selling well enough to replace them.
- AI or Large Language Models Backlash. There certainly was some backlash to Hasbro CEO’s Chris Cock’s comments on the use of AI in Wizards of the Coast product (See “Alliance Open House and the Future of AI at Wizards of the Coast”), but it seems to have died down fairly quickly. It does appear that, when companies address the topic, it is to state they rely on human artists, rather than AI-generated art (see “Warlord CCG Reboot Fully Funded at Over $250,000”). Awaken Realms pulled down AI-generated promotional art for its Puerto Rico 1897 Special Edition set but did use AI art in its Grimcoven game; and Spiel Essen stopped using AI art to promote the event after criticism about its legality. A number of artists have written general criticisms of the use of AI, calling it “theft” and “Mixing slop for pigs”. Wise Wizard is likely the best-known company to use AI art in its recently funded Draconis 8 CCG but that was in conjunction with the company’s head.
Three out of four isn’t bad.
Wishing you a Happy and Profitable New Year.
Comments? What do you foresee for 2025? Send them to castleperilousgames@gmail.com
The opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial staff of ICv2.com.
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