Rolling for Initiative is a weekly column by Scott Thorne, PhD, owner of Castle Perilous Games & Books in Carbondale, Illinois, and instructor in marketing at Southeast Missouri State University. This week, Thorne lays out his predictions for 2026 and says goodbye to Tim Kask.
Well, I was 1-1/4 in terms of my predictions for 2025 (see “Prediction Scorecard for 2025“), so let’s see how I do for 2026.
Prediction #1 – Tariffs
The Supreme Court appears, and I want to empathize “appears,” ready to rule against the Trump administration’s widespread use of tariffs as a means of equalizing trade imbalances (see “Tariffs at the Court and Promos without Info“). The justices seem skeptical of the administration’s claims there are widespread emergencies that can only be dealt with through tariffs and agree with the plaintiffs that the tariffing power belongs to Congress, even though that body seems willing to hand over that power to the executive branch as the Speaker has said he believes the administration is acting well within its powers. However, Justice Coney Barrett indicated she saw problems with a ruling rolling back all the imposed tariffs, saying, “Tell me how the reimbursement process would work. Would it be a complete mess?” Given that, I would expect a ruling similar to that made regarding the mass firings of government employees earlier in the year, i.e. it was illegal but we are going to let what has already been done stand. The SCOTUS will rule the administration’s tariffs illegal but will not order a refund of tariffs paid as part of the ruling, instead requiring entities affected by tariffs to sue the government for repayment on an individual basis.
Prediction #2 – Pokémon
Since the “King of Collectibles” declared pop culture collectibles an “accepted alternative asset” and Morgan Stanley values the category at over $100 billion with an estimated growth of 6% (currently exceeding the rate of inflation), I expect demand for Pokémon to keep growing (see “King of Collectibles Declares Collectables an Accepted Alternative Asset“). However, I do not expect to see a repetition of what happened to the sports card and comic market in the 1990s with Pokémon TCG, because we have one company controlling the supply of the primary collectible in demand (see “Are the ‘90s Back?“). During the 1990s, the perceived demand was for variant covers and sports card sets. For a period, who put them out did not particularly matter. Hence the industry saw sports cards sets from Score, Topps, Upper Deck and others flood into the market while the comic industry saw variant books from DC Comics, Marvel Comics, Image Comics, Malibu etc. Pokémon does not have that problem since all the desired product comes from one company which still cannot keep up with the ever-increasing demand. Eventually demand for Pokémon will crest but I do not see that happening until 2027 at least.
Prediction #3 – Wizards of the Coast
Since as of today, Wizards of the Coast has not released its slate of Dungeons & Dragons releases for the year, and summer saw the release of the worst Magic: The Gathering set in years with Spider-Man, I am expecting a much smaller slate of D&D releases for 2026 and stores to dramatically cut orders for Summer’s Marvel Super Heroes set. Whether that reduction in orders affects the demand for MSH remains to be seen.
Farewell to Tim Kask. Not a prediction but I did want to bid farewell to Tim Kask, who passed away last week at the age of 76. During his time at Southern Illinois University here in Carbondale, Kask was introduced to Chainmail, which led to long conversations with Gary Gygax and Kask’s eventual hiring as the first full-time employee at TSR Inc., editing the first three supplements to the original Dungeons & Dragons books and serving as editor of Dragon Magazine for its first 33 issues. After leaving TSR in 1980, Kask published Adventure Gaming magazine, then left the industry for a career in editing, ghostwriting and eventually teaching. He later returned to the industry, first as an auctioneer at Gen Con for over a decade and as one of the principals at Eldrich Enterprises, which published “old school-style” RPG adventures. I had the opportunity to meet him a few times when he returned to SIUC during the 1990s and always found him engaging and willing to talk. Rest in Peace, Mr. Kask.
Comments? Your predictions for 2026? Send them to Castleperilousgames@gmail.com.
The opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the writer, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial staff of ICv2.com.
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